After years of strong growth, the data for 2026 shows a different picture. Calmer. More cautious. According to our Talent Monitor, the expected rate increase for external professionals in 2026 is around 1%. That is exceptionally low in historical perspective. Especially when you consider that inflation and scarcity were the driving force behind higher rates for a long time. What exactly is happening? And why is there still no actual decline?
From acceleration to deceleration
The past years have been marked by scarcity. Professionals were scarce and the number of assignments was high. As a result, rates rose rapidly, but that phase is behind us. The Talent Monitor shows that the labour market is relaxing. In 2025, the vacancy rate fell slightly, from 44.5 to 43.3. At the same time, labour market activity is increasing, with more and more professionals actively exploring new assignments and career opportunities.
This creates a different dynamic. Less tension on the supply side means less upward pressure on rates. You can already see this movement in 2025, where rate growth clearly levels off compared to previous years.
The prediction model explained
The annual rate expectation is based on a statistical model by Intelligence Group. This model primarily looks at two factors: inflation and vacancy rate. Together they determine how rates move in the market.
According to De Nederlandsche Bank, inflation is at 3.0% in 2025 and decreases to 2.4% in 2026. This reduces the pressure for major rate adjustments. Meanwhile, the economy grows slightly, by about 1.3%, while unemployment rises slightly to 4.1%.
This combination points to a stable market for 2026: rates do not need to rise significantly and the economy continues to grow steadily.
Three scenarios, one outcome
Because the future is difficult to predict, the Talent Monitor works with scenarios. Three directions have been worked out for the vacancy rate: rising, stable, or falling. The same applies to inflation.
With rising vacancy rates and high inflation, the expected rate increase will be 4.4%. This scenario would indicate a significant shortage, but we are not seeing any signs of this.
In the base scenario, inflation and vacancy rates continue to decline slightly. In that case, the expected rate increase is approximately 1.0%. This scenario is most consistent with our current data.
With decreasing scarcity and low inflation, rates could even fall slightly. In the worst-case scenario, the model predicts a decline of -1.0%.
Why rates are not falling
On paper, a slight decrease in rates would be a logical development. In practice, however, this rarely happens. The Talent Monitor provides clarity: rates for independent professionals are often directly or indirectly linked to collective labor agreement indexations.
Collective agreement wages are still rising. Over the period from 2022 to 2025, the average collective agreement wage increase will be around 5.2% per year. This has an impact on the lower limit of rates. As a result, rates hardly fall, even when market demand declines.
Significant differences remain
Important detail: that 1.0% is an average. Behind that figure lie significant differences. In some ICT positions, rates are already under pressure. There, supply is high and demand is more selective.
In sectors such as healthcare, construction, and engineering, demand remains structurally high. In fact, you see increases there. Experience and employability also play a greater role within professional groups. Demand is shifting toward mid-level and senior professionals, which supports the average rate.
What does this mean for you as a client?
2026 calls for a different approach. The market offers you more stability and predictability. This gives you room to look ahead and focus more sharply on rates, contract forms, and deployment duration.
A limited rate increase makes budgeting easier. Make use of current market data and assess the situation individually, per assignment, role, and sector.
Would you like to see exactly how the scenarios are constructed and what this means for your hiring policy? In the latest Talent Monitor, you will find the complete analysis, figures, and expectations for 2026.
